Dave Litfin's Expert Handicapping

Dave Litfin

Litfin, a professional handicapper who's been ont he staff of the Daily Racing Form since 1991, is a user of Ragozin's sheets, and like Ragozin, he's a member of a very rare breed; he's made a lot of money playing the horses. Consistently. And while Ragozin's fortune has been made the last number of years mostly from selling his figures (Friedman has handled the betting end of the Ragozin Empire for the last quarter century or so), Litfin has only drawn a regular paycheck from it (and one can guess it's not a large one) for a decade. Other than that, it's been a case of live or die by the finish line camera. And he's done very well for himself, thank you. From a handicapper's perspective, si this a guy you want to listen to? Very much so.

Litfin's book is divided into five sections, with each loosely based around one particular idea. It could have been two sections (what to look for and what not to look for) without any problems. Litfin not only gives us a primer on overlooked handicapping tools and techniques-- many of which are touched on in a number of handicapping tomes, but never gone into in detail-- but he also, by focusing on the methods by which one uses these techniques, gives us a new way to look at handicapping. (In doing so, it should be noted, he also from the beginning puts paid to one of Ragozin's points of contention with the rest of the handicapping community; Litfin holds forth that any set of figures can be used to spot condition patterns, where Ragozin contends that his figures are the only ones accurate enough to do so. Litfin may play a little fast and loose with Beyer figures-- calling the same point difference "essentially the same line" in one place and looking upon it as enough to make a difference in another-- but he provides more than enough examples for a reader to discern that the patterns are definitely there, whether you use Ragozin's sheets, Jerry Brown's sheets, or Beyer figures.)

Litfin's focus on patterns, especially over the full course of a horse's career, is something that, as I mentioned, a number of handicapping books touch on, but none go into in great detail. Steve Davidowitz' Betting Thoroughbreds comes close, but never steps over the line and really takes hold of it the way Litfin does. Litfin also suggests different ways to store records so that patterns become more readily found. Different ways to store data? Who'd'a thunk it? Brilliant in its simplicity-- use a pair of scissors, find overlays.

Absolutely one of the books that should be added to the canon, and perhaps it should be one of the definitive handicapping books. Should be in the library of even the most casual horseplayer.